Markets are falling: what does Warren Buffett say? Buy or Sell?
Tuesday, 15 July 2008
Berkshire Hathaway held its annual shareholders meeting in May. The company, run by Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett (the world’s richest man), continues to do well, though Buffett warned shareholders not to expect continued stellar returns as in years gone by. “Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock,” Buffett said. “It isn’t going to happen. I think we’re going to get decent results over time, but we’re not going to get indecent results.”
What were his views on falling stock markets? Take a look at his 1997 letter as it contains some advice appropriate to our current volatile market.
“A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.
But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the “hamburgers” they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.“
That’s the portion of the letter that is most often quoted. But I think the next few paragraphs are just as interesting because they demonstrate how he puts this philosophy into practice.
“For shareholders of Berkshire who do not expect to sell, the choice is even clearer. To begin with, our owners are automatically saving even if they spend every dime they personally earn: Berkshire “saves” for them by retaining all earnings, thereafter using these savings to purchase businesses and securities. Clearly, the more cheaply we make these buys, the more profitable our owners’ indirect savings program will be. Furthermore, through Berkshire you own major positions in companies that consistently repurchase their shares. The benefits that these programs supply us grow as prices fall: When stock prices are low, the funds that an investee spends on repurchases increase our ownership of that company by a greater amount than is the case when prices are higher. For example, the repurchases that Coca-Cola, The Washington Post and Wells Fargo made in past years at very low prices benefitted Berkshire far more than do today’s repurchases, made at loftier prices.
At the end of every year, about 97% of Berkshire’s shares are held by the same investors who owned them at the start of the year. That makes them savers. They should therefore rejoice when markets decline and allow both us and our investees to deploy funds more advantageously.”
As JD Roth says "So smile when you read a headline that says “Investors lose as market falls.” Edit it in your mind to “Disinvestors lose as market falls — but investors gain.” Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: “Every putt makes someone happy.”
It’s sensible advice, but so easy to forget when you see the value of your investments plummeting. And this is just one part of one shareholder letter.
(Warren Buffett's annual letters to shareholders)
Categories: Asset Class Management
posted by Murray Round Wealth Management @ 09:47,
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Nicholas Round
Nic is the Managing Director of Murray Round Wealth Management Limited, who seeks to ensure the advice provided is truly independent. Based in Shropshire with clients local, national and worldwide, Nic has strived to find the best possible service for his clients needs, by researching and studying the market, trends and philosophies. Nic strongly believes Asset Class Management will bring his clients Financial Freedom, Independence and Happiness.
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